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Sciencecloses in 6mo

Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping…

As of 14 September 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 50% implied probability. The event has traded $0 in total ($0 in the last 24h) with $0 of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 1 April 2027.

24h volume
$0
Total volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Markets
1
1 Apr 2027
Weatherclimateglobal warmingWeather & Science

Chart, demo trading & order book

MarketWill the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
Yes50.0¢
24h Chg—
Mkt Vol$0
live
Order bookYes
Market tradeslive · 6s
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Markets and probabilities

1 markets
How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.