Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Gävle Goat, a traditional Christmas display erected annually in Gävle, Sweden, is set on fire by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Any fire on the Gävle Goat’s main structure will qualify, regardless of the extent of the damage or whet…
As of 28 October 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 11% implied probability. The event has traded $441 in total ($466 in the last 24h) with $331 of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 31 December 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.