Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic R…
As of 16 October 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 23% implied probability (-0.5pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $14.1K in total ($236 in the last 24h) with $66.8K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2028.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.