Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland,…
As of 12 September 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 9% implied probability (-2.8pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "No", from 88% to 91%. The event has traded $176.9K in total ($0 in the last 24h) with $13.8K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.