Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified …
As of 12 September 2026, "September 30" leads at 7% implied probability (-1.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "December 31", from 44% to 42%. The event has traded $68.0K in total ($466 in the last 24h) with $1.2K of liquidity across 5 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
5 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.