Polymarket market probabilities
6,693 events|91,756 markets|updating
Active events
6,693
91,756 markets
24h volume
$40.7M
$711.7M liquidity
Top gainer 24h
+94.7pp
Will Lambda's valuation hit __ by August 31?
Top loser 24h
-94.7pp
Will Lambda's valuation hit __ by August 31?
Live price moves
auto-updatingLiveprice moves · auto-refresh
MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Yes · $5.3K · 9min ago
26%
▼ 2.0pp
MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
No · $5.3K · 9min ago
75%
▲ 2.0pp
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?
No · $5.4K · 9min ago
71%
▲ 7.0pp
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?
Yes · $5.4K · 9min ago
30%
▼ 7.0pp
"The Dog Stars" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
Yes · $5.4K · 9min ago
54%
▲ 12.0pp
"The Dog Stars" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
No · $5.4K · 9min ago
47%
▼ 12.0pp
"The Dog Stars" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
No · $5.4K · 9min ago
24%
▼ 5.0pp
"The Dog Stars" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
Yes · $5.4K · 9min ago
76%
▲ 5.0pp
"The Dog Stars" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
No · $5.4K · 9min ago
73%
▲ 2.5pp
"The Dog Stars" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
Yes · $5.4K · 9min ago
28%
▼ 2.5pp
Will Lambda's valuation hit __ by December 31?
No · $5.5K · 9min ago
50%
▼ 2.0pp
Will Lambda's valuation hit __ by December 31?
Yes · $5.5K · 9min ago
50%
▲ 2.0pp
Will Lambda's valuation hit __ by December 31?
No · $5.5K · 9min ago
73%
▲ 1.5pp
Will Lambda's valuation hit __ by December 31?
Yes · $5.5K · 9min ago
28%
▼ 1.5pp
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Yes · $5.5K · 9min ago
7%
▼ 3.0pp
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
No · $5.5K · 9min ago
94%
▲ 3.0pp
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
No · $5.6K · 9min ago
34%
▲ 2.0pp
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Yes · $5.6K · 9min ago
66%
▼ 2.0pp
Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Yes · $5.6K · 9min ago
19%
▼ 5.0pp
Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
No · $5.6K · 9min ago
81%
▲ 5.0pp
Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
No · $5.6K · 9min ago
81%
▼ 2.0pp
Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Yes · $5.6K · 9min ago
19%
▲ 2.0pp
Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
No · $5.6K · 9min ago
47%
▲ 1.5pp
Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Yes · $5.6K · 9min ago
53%
▼ 1.5pp
Big movers alert · 24h
See all (1m → 7d) →▲ Gainers 24h·click to open
▼ Losers 24h
Whale tape — who buys, who sells
See all + positions →BUYFlaky-IntegerLegacyCounter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B1.1K @89¢$945
BUYFlaky-IntegerLegacyCounter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B1.6K @85¢$1.3K
SELLWry-GrandfatherLegacyCounter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B2.9K @62¢$1.8K
Abnormal movements
trading spike vs baseline2107×spike
SC Freiburg vs. Motherwell FC - More Markets
base $1.2K/h → $128.2K/h · $105.8K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
3102×spike
Fulham FC vs. AFC Wimbledon - More Markets
base $1.1K/h → $109.1K/h · $90.4K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
492×spike
US Open, Qualification WTA: Gabriela Knutson vs Ekaterine Gorgodze
base $865/h → $80.0K/h · $64.9K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
592×spike
FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Mjällby AIF - More Markets
base $1.0K/h → $92.6K/h · $123.6K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
643×spike
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Tromsø IL - More Markets
base $1.7K/h → $71.7K/h · $64.6K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
738×spike
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC - More Markets
base $2.9K/h → $107.8K/h · $112.8K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
Browse by category
Trending now
top 6 by 24h volumeSports⏱ 3h
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B
Legacy
74%
FUT Esports
26%
$6.2M · 24h22 mkts
Politics⏱ 1mo
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
62%
Flávio Bolsonaro
35%
Renan Santos
2%
$2.5M · 24h32 mkts
Politics⏱ 4mo
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No
88%
Yes
13%
$2.3M · 24h1 mkts
Sports⏱ 2h
FC Barcelona vs. Athletic Club
FC Barcelona
80%
Draw (FC Barcelona vs. Athletic Club)
13%
Athletic Club
7%
$1.7M · 24h3 mkts
Politics⏱ 19d
Fed Decision in September?
No change
68%
25 bps increase
31%
25 bps decrease
1%
$1.2M · 24h5 mkts
Crypto⏱ 4d
What price will Bitcoin hit in August?
↑ 80,000
100%
↑ 75,000
100%
↑ 72,500
100%
$1.0M · 24h45 mkts
More active markets
24 sorted by volumeElon Musk # tweets August 21 - August 28, 2026?
180-199 · 26 mkts
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen · 128 mkts
FC Barcelona vs. Athletic Club - More Markets
FC Barcelona · 33 mkts
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 31 · 20 mkts
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Team A · 42 mkts
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals · 17 mkts
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · 128 mkts
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance · 128 mkts
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B
Team Falcons · 16 mkts
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot · 28 mkts
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
↓ 65,000 · 47 mkts
RC Celta de Vigo vs. CA Osasuna
RC Celta de Vigo · 3 mkts
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER) · 34 mkts
What price will Ethereum hit in August?
↑ 2,500 · 42 mkts
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. · 128 mkts
2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
Carlos Alcaraz · 49 mkts
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs
BIG · 39 mkts
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Abiy Ahmed · 33 mkts
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. FC Twente
FC Twente · 3 mkts
Kuopion PS vs. Shamrock Rovers FC
Draw (Kuopion PS vs. Shamrock Rovers FC) · 3 mkts
Largest Company end of August?
NVIDIA · 29 mkts
Elon Musk # tweets August 25 - September 1, 2026?
140-159 · 26 mkts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
No · 1 mkts
Pro Football: 2027 Champion
Los Angeles Rams · 33 mkts